Forecasting the future development in quality and value of professional football players

TL;DR

This paper evaluates explainable machine learning models, especially random forests, for predicting future player quality and transfer value in professional football, emphasizing accuracy, uncertainty quantification, and the importance of nonlinear patterns.

Contribution

It introduces an approach combining explainable models with uncertainty quantification to forecast football players' future performance and transfer value, highlighting the effectiveness of random forests.

Findings

Random forest models provide accurate predictions and natural uncertainty quantification.

Player development exhibits nonlinear patterns and variable interactions.

Time series data enhances the modeling of player performance metrics.

Abstract

Transfers in professional football (soccer) are risky investments because of the large transfer fees and high risks involved. Although data-driven models can be used to improve transfer decisions, existing models focus on describing players' historical progress, leaving their future performance unknown. Moreover, recent developments have called for the use of explainable models combined with uncertainty quantification of predictions. This paper assesses explainable machine learning models based on predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification methods for the prediction of the future development in quality and transfer value of professional football players. The predictive accuracy is studied by training the models to predict the quality and value of players one year ahead. This is carried out by training them on two data sets containing data-driven indicators describing the player quality and player value in historical settings. In general, the random forest model is found to be the most suitable model because it provides accurate predictions as well as an uncertainty quantification method that naturally arises from the bagging procedure of the random forest model. Additionally, this research shows that the development of player performance contains nonlinear patterns and interactions between variables, and that time series information can provide useful information for the modeling of player performance metrics. The resulting models can help football clubs make more informed, data-driven transfer decisions by forecasting player quality and transfer value.