Beyond 2050: From deployment to renewal of the global solar and wind energy system

TL;DR

This paper models the long-term renewal dynamics of global solar and wind energy systems beyond 2050, highlighting how deployment speed and lifespan influence production oscillations and industrial stability.

Contribution

It introduces a two-phase growth model combined with lifespan distributions to analyze the transition from deployment to renewal in renewable energy infrastructure.

Findings

Faster deployment than lifespan causes production overshoot and oscillations.

Wind power shows a steady growth trajectory, unlike solar.

Oscillations could range from 15% to 60% of global production.

Abstract

The global energy transition depends on large-scale photovoltaic (PV) and wind power deployment. While 2050 targets suggest a transition endpoint, maintaining these systems beyond mid-century requires continuous renewal, marking a fundamental yet often overlooked shift in industrial dynamics. This study examines the transition from initial deployment to long-term renewal, using a two-phase growth model: an exponential expansion followed by capacity stabilization. By integrating this pattern with a Weibull distribution of PV panel and wind turbine lifespans, we estimate the annual production required for both expansion and maintenance. Our findings highlight two key factors influencing production dynamics: deployment speed and lifespan. When deployment occurs faster than the average lifespan, production overshoots and exhibits damped oscillations due to successive installation and replacement cycles. In contrast, gradual deployment leads to a smooth increase before stabilizing at the renewal rate. Given current scenarios, the PV industry is likely to experience significant oscillations - ranging from 15 % to 60 % of global production - while wind power follows a monotonic growth trajectory. These oscillations, driven by ambitious energy targets, may result in cycles of overproduction and underproduction, affecting industrial stability. Beyond solar and wind, this study underscores a broader challenge in the energy transition: shifting from infrastructure expansion to long-term maintenance. Addressing this phase is crucial for ensuring the resilience and sustainability of renewable energy systems beyond 2050.