Solar Cycles: Can They Be Predicted?

TL;DR

This paper reviews the challenges and current state of predicting solar cycles, highlighting the difficulties in accurately forecasting their amplitude and timing, and discusses future research directions.

Contribution

It provides an analysis of past solar cycle predictions, identifies reasons for inaccuracies, and offers perspectives for improving solar cycle forecasting methods.

Findings

Most predictions underestimated cycle 25 amplitude

Timing predictions are relatively more accurate

Reasons for prediction inaccuracies are discussed

Abstract

The solar magnetic field, thought to be generated by the motion of plasma within the Sun, alternates on the order of 11-year cycles and is incompletely understood. Industries rely on accurate forecasts of solar activity, but can solar cycles be predicted? Of more than 100 predictions for cycle 25, most underestimated the amplitude (peak sunspot number). Fewer predictions were made for the timing of solar maximum, but timing predictions seem to be performing better than amplitude predictions. Reasons for inaccurate prediction are suggested, and perspectives are given on how future studies might improve upon the extant literature.