Accurately Estimating Unreported Infections using Information Theory

TL;DR

This paper introduces an information theoretic method to improve estimation of total infections, including unreported cases, in epidemic models, demonstrated on COVID-19 data, leading to better estimates and forecasts.

Contribution

It presents a novel information theoretic approach integrated with ODE-based epidemiological models to more accurately estimate total infections and optimize model parametrization.

Findings

Enhanced estimates of total COVID-19 infections.

Improved infection forecasts over standard methods.

Better modeling of intervention scenarios.

Abstract

One of the most significant challenges in combating against the spread of infectious diseases was the difficulty in estimating the true magnitude of infections. Unreported infections could drive up disease spread, making it very hard to accurately estimate the infectivity of the pathogen, therewith hampering our ability to react effectively. Despite the use of surveillance-based methods such as serological studies, identifying the true magnitude is still challenging. This paper proposes an information theoretic approach for accurately estimating the number of total infections. Our approach is built on top of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) based models, which are commonly used in epidemiology and for estimating such infections. We show how we can help such models to better compute the number of total infections and identify the parametrization by which we need the fewest bits to describe the observed dynamics of reported infections. Our experiments on COVID-19 spread show that our approach leads to not only substantially better estimates of the number of total infections but also better forecasts of infections than standard model calibration based methods. We additionally show how our learned parametrization helps in modeling more accurate what-if scenarios with non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our approach provides a general method for improving epidemic modeling which is applicable broadly.