Temporal dynamics of goal scoring in soccer

TL;DR

This study reveals that goal scoring in soccer is not random but tends to increase as matches progress, with goals clustering in time and influenced by match context, challenging previous assumptions.

Contribution

The paper provides new insights into the temporal patterns of goal scoring, highlighting non-random, bursty dynamics and the influence of match context on scoring probabilities.

Findings

Goals are more likely as the match progresses.

Goals tend to cluster closer together in time.

Teams are more likely to score again shortly after their previous goal.

Abstract

We investigated the temporal distribution of goals in soccer using event-level data from 3,433 matches across 21 leagues and competitions. Contrary to the prevailing notion of randomness, we found that the probability of a goal being scored is higher as matches progress, and we observed fewer-than-expected goals in the early minutes of each half. Further analysis of the time between subsequent goals shows an exponential decay, indicating that most goals naturally cluster closer together in time. By splitting this distribution by the team that scores the next goal, we observe bursty goal-scoring dynamics, wherein the same team is more likely to score again shortly after its previous goal. These findings highlight the importance of match context (whether driven by fatigue, tactical adaptations, or psychological momentum) in shaping when teams are able to score. Moreover, the results open avenues for extending data-driven methods for identifying high-impact moments in a match and refining strategic decision-making in soccer's evolving analytical landscape.