The current cratering rate on the regular satellites of Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus

TL;DR

This study estimates the impact rates of 1 km objects on Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus satellites using advanced dynamical simulations and current population data, finding lower impact probabilities than previous estimates.

Contribution

It provides a new, more accurate estimate of impact rates based on updated initial conditions and comprehensive dynamical modeling of the outer solar system.

Findings

Impact rate on Jupiter is 0.0012/yr, lower than previous estimates.

Impact probabilities scaled to planets are consistent with earlier studies.

Lower absolute impact probabilities are due to initial condition choices.

Abstract

We aim to compute the impact rates for objects with a diameter of 1 km onto the regular satellites of Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus using our latest dynamical simulations of the evolution of outer solar system coupled with the best estimates of the current population of objects beyond Neptune and their size-frequency distribution. We use the outcome of the last 3.5~Gyr of evolution of the outer solar system from our database of simulations and combine this with observational constraints of the population beyond Neptune to compute the flux of objects entering the Centaur region, with uncertainties. The initial conditions resemble the current population rather than a near-circular, near-planar disc usually assumed just before the onset of giant planet migration. We obtain a better estimate of the impact probability of a Centaur with the satellites from enacting simulations of planetesimals flying past the satellites on hyperbolic orbits, which agree with literature precedents. We find that our impact rate of objects greater than 1 km in diameter with Jupiter is 0.0012/yr, which is a factor of 3--6 lower than previous estimates of 0.0044/yr from Nesvorny et al. (2023) and 0.0075/yr from Zahnle et al. (2003). On the other hand our impact probabilities with the satellites scaled to the giant planets are consistent with these earlier literature estimates, as is the leakage rate of objects from beyond Neptune into the Centaur region. However, our absolute impact probabilities with the giant planets are lower. We attribute this to our choice of initial conditions.