Using Generative Models to Produce Realistic Populations of UK Windstorms

TL;DR

This paper evaluates various generative models trained on historical UK windstorm data to assess their ability to realistically simulate windstorm characteristics for meteorological research and risk assessment.

Contribution

It compares four different generative models, highlighting their strengths and limitations in simulating UK windstorms, and suggests ensemble approaches for improved reliability.

Findings

WGAN-GP had balanced performance but misrepresented extremes

U-net diffusion produced high-quality spatial patterns but underestimated intensities

Diffusion-GAN performed best overall, overestimating extremes

Abstract

This study evaluates the potential of generative models, trained on historical ERA5 reanalysis data, for simulating windstorms over the UK. Four generative models, including a standard GAN, a WGAN-GP, a U-net diffusion model, and a diffusion-GAN were assessed based on their ability to replicate spatial and statistical characteristics of windstorms. Different models have distinct strengths and limitations. The standard GAN displayed broader variability and limited alignment on the PCA dimensions. The WGAN-GP had a more balanced performance but occasionally misrepresented extreme events. The U-net diffusion model produced high-quality spatial patterns but consistently underestimated windstorm intensities. The diffusion-GAN performed better than the other models in general but overestimated extremes. An ensemble approach combining the strengths of these models could potentially improve their overall reliability. This study provides a foundation for such generative models in meteorological research and could potentially be applied in windstorm analysis and risk assessment.