Epidemics on the Move: How Public Transport Demand and Capacity Shape Disease Spread

TL;DR

This paper investigates how demand fluctuations and capacity restrictions in public transportation influence disease transmission, proposing strategies to balance transit efficiency with public health safety.

Contribution

It provides an epidemiological analysis of demand and capacity measures in public transit, suggesting alternative strategies to reduce disease spread while maintaining service.

Findings

Demand reduction decreases disease transmission

Capacity constraints can slow infection spread

Proposed measures balance transit needs and health risks

Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of passenger interactions and their epidemiological impact throughout public transportation systems is crucial for both service efficiency and public health. High passenger density and close physical proximity has been shown to accelerate the spread of infectious diseases. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many public transportation companies took measures to slow down and minimize disease spreading. One of these measures was introducing spacing and capacity constraints to public transit vehicles. Our objective is to explore the effects of demand changes and transportation measures from an epidemiological point of view, offering alternative measures to public transportation companies to keep the system alive while minimizing the epidemiological risk as much as possible.