Assessing and Predicting Air Pollution in Asia: A Regional and Temporal Study (2018-2023)

TL;DR

This paper analyzes regional air pollution trends in Asia from 2018 to 2023, identifying high-risk areas and demonstrating the effectiveness of ARIMA models in predicting PM 2.5 levels for better policy planning.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive regional analysis of air pollution in Asia and applies ARIMA modeling for accurate future PM 2.5 level predictions.

Findings

South Asia is the most polluted region.

ARIMA model predicts PM 2.5 with high accuracy.

K-means clustering categorizes countries by pollution levels.

Abstract

This study analyzes and predicts air pollution in Asia, focusing on PM 2.5 levels from 2018 to 2023 across five regions: Central, East, South, Southeast, and West Asia. South Asia emerged as the most polluted region, with Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan consistently having the highest PM 2.5 levels and death rates, especially in Nepal, Pakistan, and India. East Asia showed the lowest pollution levels. K-means clustering categorized countries into high, moderate, and low pollution groups. The ARIMA model effectively predicted 2023 PM 2.5 levels (MAE: 3.99, MSE: 33.80, RMSE: 5.81, R: 0.86). The findings emphasize the need for targeted interventions to address severe pollution and health risks in South Asia.