Personalized Interpolation: Achieving Efficient Conversion Estimation with Flexible Optimization Windows

TL;DR

This paper introduces Personalized Interpolation, a method that improves conversion prediction accuracy by supporting flexible, advertiser-specific optimization windows without adding system complexity.

Contribution

We propose a novel Personalized Interpolation technique that extends fixed-window models to support diverse, advertiser-specific conversion delay distributions.

Findings

Achieves higher prediction accuracy than existing fixed-window models.

Improves efficiency in conversion estimation tasks.

Effectively handles diverse delay distributions across advertisers.

Abstract

Optimizing conversions is crucial in modern online advertising systems, enabling advertisers to deliver relevant products to users and drive business outcomes. However, accurately predicting conversion events remains challenging due to variable time delays between user interactions (e.g., impressions or clicks) and the actual conversions. These delays vary substantially across advertisers and products, necessitating flexible optimization windows tailored to specific conversion behaviors. To address this, we propose a novel \textit{Personalized Interpolation} method that extends existing models based on fixed conversion windows to support flexible advertiser-specific optimization windows. Our method enables accurate conversion estimation across diverse delay distributions without increasing system complexity. We evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach through extensive experiments using a real-world ads conversion model. Our results show that this method achieves both high prediction accuracy and improved efficiency compared to existing solutions. This study demonstrates the potential of our Personalized Interpolation method to improve conversion optimization and support a wider range of advertising strategies in large-scale online advertising systems.