Social dynamics can delay or prevent climate tipping points by speeding the adoption of climate change mitigation

TL;DR

This study presents a coupled social-climate model showing that rapid social learning and strong social norms can delay or prevent climate tipping points, highlighting the importance of social dynamics in climate change mitigation.

Contribution

It introduces a novel coupled model integrating social behaviour and climate tipping elements, emphasizing the role of social norms and learning rates in climate tipping point dynamics.

Findings

Faster social learning can delay or prevent climate tipping points.

Strong social norms influence the likelihood of social tipping points.

High-risk scenarios increase the probability of climate tipping points.

Abstract

Social behaviour models are increasingly integrated into climate change studies, and the significance of climate tipping points for `runaway' climate change is well recognised. However, there has been insufficient focus on tipping points in social-climate dynamics. We developed a coupled social-climate model consisting of an Earth system model and a social behaviour model, both with tipping elements. The social model explores opinion formation by analysing social learning rates, the net cost of mitigation, and the strength of social norms. Our results indicate that the net cost of mitigation and social norms have minimal impact on tipping points when social norms are weak. As social norms strengthen, the climate tipping point can trigger a tipping element in the social model. However, faster social learning can delay or prevent the climate tipping point: sufficiently fast social learning means growing climate change mitigation can outpace the oncoming climate tipping point, despite social-climate feedback. By comparing high- and low-risk scenarios, we demonstrated high-risk scenarios increase the likelihood of tipping points. We also illustrate the role of a critical temperature anomaly in triggering tipping points. In conclusion, understanding social behaviour dynamics is vital for predicting climate tipping points and mitigating their impacts.