Towards Real-World Validation of a Physics-Based Ship Motion Prediction Model

TL;DR

This paper presents a physics-based 3D ship motion model tailored for container ships, validated against real-world voyage data, demonstrating high accuracy in predicting ship trajectories under various environmental conditions.

Contribution

The study introduces a high-fidelity, physics-based ship motion model validated with real-world data, bridging the gap between theoretical models and practical autonomous navigation applications.

Findings

Model predictions closely match real-world vessel trajectories.

Validation methods include visual comparison and multiple distance measures.

Model effectively accounts for environmental conditions affecting ship motion.

Abstract

The maritime industry aims towards a sustainable future, which requires significant improvements in operational efficiency. Current approaches focus on minimising fuel consumption and emissions through greater autonomy. Efficient and safe autonomous navigation requires high-fidelity ship motion models applicable to real-world conditions. Although physics-based ship motion models can predict ships' motion with sub-second resolution, their validation in real-world conditions is rarely found in the literature. This study presents a physics-based 3D dynamics motion model that is tailored to a container-ship, and compares its predictions against real-world voyages. The model integrates vessel motion over time and accounts for its hydrodynamic behavior under different environmental conditions. The model's predictions are evaluated against real vessel data both visually and using multiple distance measures. Both methodologies demonstrate that the model's predictions align closely with the real-world trajectories of the container-ship.