Cautious Dual-Self Expected Utility and Weak Uncertainty Aversion

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new decision theory model called cautious dual-self expected utility, which accounts for minimal uncertainty aversion by modeling two selves in an extensive-form game to determine beliefs.

Contribution

It proposes a novel class of representations that incorporate cautious dual-self interactions, extending traditional uncertainty aversion models in decision theory.

Findings

Introduces cautious dual-self expected utility representations.

Shows how two selves interact to determine beliefs in decision making.

Provides alternative representations illustrating the model's implications.

Abstract

Gilboa and Schmeidler's (1989) uncertainty aversion plays a central role in decision theory and economics, yet many inconsistent behaviors have been observed in experiments. Motivated by this, we study an axiom postulating a minimal degree of uncertainty aversion. Our main result shows that this axiom yields a new class of representations, called cautious dual-self expected utility representations. In this model, two selves in the decision maker's mind play an extensive-form game to determine the belief used for evaluation, where the first mover is selected cautiously. As illustrated by two alternative representations, cautiously choosing between two "dual" scenarios is the key implication of our axiom.