Exploring the Technology Landscape through Topic Modeling, Expert Involvement, and Reinforcement Learning

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel method combining topic modeling, expert input, and reinforcement learning to detect and analyze technological changes, demonstrated through forecasting trends in quantum communication.

Contribution

It presents an innovative approach integrating expert knowledge and reinforcement learning with topic modeling for dynamic technological trend detection.

Findings

Effective identification and ranking of technological trends

Alignment of detected trends with expert insights

Demonstrated scalability and adaptability of the method

Abstract

In today's rapidly evolving technological landscape, organizations face the challenge of integrating external insights into their decision-making processes to stay competitive. To address this issue, this study proposes a method that combines topic modeling, expert knowledge inputs, and reinforcement learning (RL) to enhance the detection of technological changes. The method has four main steps: (1) Build a relevant topic model, starting with textual data like documents and reports to find key themes. (2) Create aspect-based topic models. Experts use curated keywords to build models that showcase key domain-specific aspects. (3) Iterative analysis and RL driven refinement: We examine metrics such as topic magnitude, similarity, entropy shifts, and how models change over time. We optimize topic selection with RL. Our reward function balances the diversity and similarity of the topics. (4) Synthesis and operational integration: Each iteration provides insights. In the final phase, the experts check these insights and reach new conclusions. These conclusions are designed for use in the firm's operational processes. The application is tested by forecasting trends in quantum communication. Results demonstrate the method's effectiveness in identifying, ranking, and tracking trends that align with expert input, providing a robust tool for exploring evolving technological landscapes. This research offers a scalable and adaptive solution for organizations to make informed strategic decisions in dynamic environments.