Forecasting of the time-dependent fluxes of antiprotons in the AMS-02 era

TL;DR

This paper models the time-dependent fluxes of cosmic ray particles, especially antiprotons, using solar modulation parameters derived from AMS-02 and Voyager 1 data, improving understanding of cosmic ray propagation.

Contribution

It introduces a method to derive local interstellar spectra for cosmic rays assuming common or separate solar modulation potentials, enabling accurate flux predictions during the AMS-02 era.

Findings

Positron and proton fluxes can be modeled with the same solar modulation parameters.

Antiproton fluxes can be predicted using electron flux data and a modified force-field approximation.

The approach aligns well with observed time-dependent cosmic ray data.

Abstract

The spectra of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) contain crucial information about their origin and propagation through the interstellar medium. When GCRs reach Earth, they are significantly influenced by the solar wind and the heliospheric magnetic field, a phenomenon known as solar modulation. This effect introduces time-dependent variations in GCR fluxes. The AMS-02 experiment has released time-dependent flux data for protons, electrons, and positrons, revealing clear correlations with solar modulation. Studies suggest that cosmic rays with the same charge, such as protons and helium nuclei, exhibit similar/same solar modulation parameters. In this work, we derive the LIS for protons and positrons under the assumption of a common solar modulation potential, using data from Voyager 1 and a 7-year average from AMS-02. Similarly, the LIS for antiprotons and electrons is derived by assuming they are governed by a separate solar modulation potential. We demonstrate that the time-dependent fluxes of positrons and protons can be accurately modeled using the same set of solar modulation parameters within a modified force-field approximation framework. Based on this, we predict the time-dependent fluxes of antiprotons using the corresponding electron flux data.