Risk Analysis of Flowlines in the Oil and Gas Sector: A GIS and Machine Learning Approach

TL;DR

This paper integrates GIS and machine learning techniques to analyze and predict risks in oil and gas flowlines, aiming to enhance safety and environmental protection through data-driven risk assessment.

Contribution

It introduces a novel combination of GIS and ML models, including ensemble classifiers and PCA, for accurate risk prediction in flowlines, addressing a gap in current safety assessments.

Findings

Ensemble classifiers outperform individual ML models in risk prediction.

Spatial and operational factors significantly influence flowline risks.

High-risk zones identified for targeted monitoring and mitigation.

Abstract

This paper presents a risk analysis of flowlines in the oil and gas sector using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and machine learning (ML). Flowlines, vital conduits transporting oil, gas, and water from wellheads to surface facilities, often face under-assessment compared to transmission pipelines. This study addresses this gap using advanced tools to predict and mitigate failures, improving environmental safety and reducing human exposure. Extensive datasets from the Colorado Energy and Carbon Management Commission (ECMC) were processed through spatial matching, feature engineering, and geometric extraction to build robust predictive models. Various ML algorithms, including logistic regression, support vector machines, gradient boosting decision trees, and K-Means clustering, were used to assess and classify risks, with ensemble classifiers showing superior accuracy, especially when paired with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction. Finally, a thorough data analysis highlighted spatial and operational factors influencing risks, identifying high-risk zones for focused monitoring. Overall, the study demonstrates the transformative potential of integrating GIS and ML in flowline risk management, proposing a data-driven approach that emphasizes the need for accurate data and refined models to improve safety in petroleum extraction.