Inference accuracy about an aircraft crash

TL;DR

This paper explores inference methods to analyze the aircraft crash of the Rwanda president, combining expert reports and physics-based calculations to assess hypotheses and demonstrate the importance of scientific reasoning in forensic investigations.

Contribution

It introduces a systematic approach to translating qualitative reports into quantitative geometric and mechanical constraints for forensic analysis.

Findings

The missile launching position remains uncertain.

Physics-based inference can evaluate hypotheses critically.

The method highlights the role of scientific expertise in legal contexts.

Abstract

Problem-based learning benefits from situations taken from real life, which arouse student interest. The shooting of Rwanda president aircraft on April 6th, 1994 is still unsolved. We discuss the methods to infer information and conclusions about where the aircraft was shot and its trajectory during its fall, as well as about the place from which the missiles were launched, and their trajectory and type. To this goal, we compiled expert reports, witness indications and other public sources, then translated plain language sentences into quantitative equalities and inequalities applied to geometry and mechanics at undergraduate level. The accuracy of each result is discussed and propagated in order to ensure a proper assessment of the hypotheses and a traceability of their consequences. Overall, the accuracy discussion can train the students critical mind, and teach inference methods which are routinely used in several fields of physics research. In addition, it demonstrates the importance and limits of scientific expertise during a judiciary process. The publicly available information interpreted by our calculations shows that the question of missile launching position is still open.