Modeling the impact of hospitalization-induced behavioral changes on SARS-COV-2 spread in New York City

TL;DR

This paper develops a behavior-epidemiology model considering risk-based behavioral groups to analyze COVID-19 spread in NYC, highlighting the importance of behavioral changes and interventions in controlling the pandemic.

Contribution

It introduces a novel multi-group behavior model incorporating social and disease-driven motivations, validated with NYC hospitalization data, and analyzes the impact of behavioral dynamics on COVID-19 spread.

Findings

Behavioral changes significantly influenced pandemic dynamics.

Risk-tolerant individuals drove the first wave's spread.

Early interventions greatly reduced mortality.

Abstract

A novel behavior-epidemiology model, which considers $n$ heterogeneous behavioral groups based on level of risk tolerance and distinguishes behavioral changes by social and disease-related motivations (such as peer-influence and fear of disease-related hospitalizations), is developed. In addition to rigorously analyzing the basic qualitative features of this model, a special case is considered where the total population is stratified into two groups: risk-averse (Group 1) and risk-tolerant (Group 2). The two-group behavior model has three disease-free equilibria in the absence of disease, and their stability is analyzed using standard linearization and the properties of Metzler-stable matrices. Furthermore, the two-group model was calibrated and validated using daily hospitalization data for New York City during the first wave, and the calibrated model was used to predict the data for the second wave. Numerical simulations of the calibrated two-group behavior model showed that while the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic during the first wave was largely influenced by the behavior of the risk-tolerant individuals, the dynamics during the second wave was influenced by the behavior of individuals in both groups. It was also shown that disease-motivated behavioral changes had greater influence in significantly reducing SARS-CoV-2 morbidity and mortality than behavior changes due to the level of peer or social influence or pressure. Finally, it is shown that the initial proportion of members in the community that are risk-averse (i.e., the proportion of individuals in Group 1 at the beginning of the pandemic) and the early and effective implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions have major impacts in reducing the size and burden of the pandemic (particularly the total SARS-CoV-2 mortality in New York City during the second wave).