Impacts of EPA's Finalized Power Plant Greenhouse Gas Standards

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the potential impacts of EPA's 2024 power plant greenhouse gas standards using multi-model simulations to inform policy, investment, and decarbonization strategies amid technical and legal uncertainties.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive multi-model analysis of the EPA power plant rules, assessing emissions, investments, costs, and policy implications.

Findings

Emissions impacts vary based on technology choices and policy design.

Power sector investments and retirements are significantly influenced by the regulations.

Legal and technical uncertainties affect the implementation and effectiveness of the standards.

Abstract

The Inflation Reduction Act subsidizes the deployment of clean electricity, hydrogen production, and carbon capture and storage, which could enable additional actions by other federal, state, and local policymakers to reduce emissions. Power plant rules finalized by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 2024 are one such example of complementary policies. The rules establish emissions intensity standards, not technology mandates, meaning power plant owners can choose from a range of technologies and control options provided that emissions standards are met. This flexibility makes electricity systems modeling important to understand the potential effects of these regulations. We report below a multi-model analysis of the EPA power plant rules that can provide timely information, including for other countries and states, on emissions impacts, policy design for electricity decarbonization, power sector investments and retirements, cost impacts, and load growth. We also discuss related technical, political, and legal uncertainties.