Forecast of gravitationally lensed Type Ia supernovae time delay measurement by Muztage-Ata 1.93m Synergy Telescope

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that the Muztagh-Ata 1.93m Synergy Telescope can effectively measure time delays in gravitationally lensed Type Ia supernovae, potentially improving Hubble constant estimates and addressing the Hubble tension.

Contribution

It presents a simulation showing MOST's capability to accurately measure supernova time delays, advancing methods for resolving the Hubble tension.

Findings

MOST achieves high SNR for brightest images of glSNe Ia.

Time delay errors are reduced to a few hours with 2-day cadence.

Bias in measurements remains below one hour.

Abstract

Strong lensing time delay measurement is a promising method to address the Hubble tension, offering a completely independent approach compared to both the cosmic microwave background analysis and the local distance ladder. As a third-party examination of the Hubble tension, this method provides a unique perspective. Strongly lensed quasar (glQSO) systems have demonstrated significant potential in tackling this issue, achieving an impressive \(2\%\) accuracy level. However, advancing to \(1\%\) or sub-percent accuracy is challenging due to several intrinsic limitations of glQSOs. Fortunately, strongly lensed supernovae (glSNe) offer a more robust solution, thanks to their characteristic light curve, significant brightness variations, and additional advantages. The Muztagh-Ata 1.93m Synergy Telescope (MOST) is an exceptional instrument for monitoring strong lensing time delays. In this study, we simulate the follow-up multi-band light curve monitoring for glSNe Ia systems, which are expected to be firstly discovered by the Chinese Survey Space Telescope (CSST). Our results show that with \(300s \times 9\) exposures in each epoch, MOST can achieve a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of approximately 50 for the brightest images of glSNe Ia, while even the faintest images maintain an SNR of at least 7. Using a standard SNe Ia light curve template for fitting, we measured the time delays. With a 2-day cadence, MOST achieves a time delay error of only a few hours, with the bias typically remaining below one hour. This study highlights the capability of MOST to significantly advance the precision of time delay measurements, offering a promising path toward resolving the Hubble tension.