Conditioning of the solar corona due to large flares

TL;DR

This study models the solar corona's evolution around large flares to identify precursors and postflare behaviors, improving flare prediction and understanding of coronal energy dynamics during solar cycle 24.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive analysis of pre- and postflare coronal conditions using magnetic field extrapolations and time series analysis, distinguishing features of confined and eruptive flares.

Findings

Magnetic energy and flux evolve similarly before flares.

Preflare free energy correlates with nonpotentiality measures.

Flare types can be predicted with over 90% accuracy.

Abstract

We aim to better characterize the conditions of the solar corona, especially with respect to the occurrence of confined and eruptive flares. In this work, we model the coronal evolution around 231 large flares observed during solar cycle 24. Using Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager vector magnetic field data around each event, we employed nonlinear force-free field extrapolations to approximate the coronal energy and helicity budgets of the solar source regions. A superposed epoch analysis and dynamical time warping applied to the time series of selected photospheric and coronal quantities were used to pin down the characteristics of the pre- and postflare time evolution, as well as to assess flare-related changes. During the 24 hours leading up to a major flare, the total magnetic energy and unsigned magnetic flux were seen to evolve closely with respect to each other, irrespective of the flare type. Prior to confined flares, the free energy evolves in a way that exhibits more of a similarity with the unsigned flux than the helicity of the current-carrying field, while the opposite trend is seen prior to eruptive flares. Furthermore, the flare type can be predicted correctly in more than 90\% of major flares when combining measures of the active regions nonpotentiality and local stability. The coronal energy and helicity budgets return to preflare levels within approximately six to 12 hours after eruptive major M-class flares, while the impact of eruptive X-flares lasts considerably longer. Finally, the postflare replenishment times of more than 12 hours after eruptive X-class flares may serve as a partial explanation for the rare observation of eruptive X-class flares within a time frame of a few hours.