A Plug-and-Play Bregman ADMM Module for Inferring Event Branches in Temporal Point Processes

TL;DR

This paper introduces a plug-and-play Bregman ADMM module that infers event branching structures in temporal point processes, enhancing interpretability and performance of existing models.

Contribution

It proposes a novel BADMM-based module for inferring event branches, applicable to various TPP models, improving interpretability and model accuracy.

Findings

Improves model performance on synthetic and real data.

Provides interpretable event transition structures.

Enhances existing TPP learning algorithms with structured responsibility matrices.

Abstract

An event sequence generated by a temporal point process is often associated with a hidden and structured event branching process that captures the triggering relations between its historical and current events. In this study, we design a new plug-and-play module based on the Bregman ADMM (BADMM) algorithm, which infers event branches associated with event sequences in the maximum likelihood estimation framework of temporal point processes (TPPs). Specifically, we formulate the inference of event branches as an optimization problem for the event transition matrix under sparse and low-rank constraints, which is embedded in existing TPP models or their learning paradigms. We can implement this optimization problem based on subspace clustering and sparse group-lasso, respectively, and solve it using the Bregman ADMM algorithm, whose unrolling leads to the proposed BADMM module. When learning a classic TPP (e.g., Hawkes process) by the expectation-maximization algorithm, the BADMM module helps derive structured responsibility matrices in the E-step. Similarly, the BADMM module helps derive low-rank and sparse attention maps for the neural TPPs with self-attention layers. The structured responsibility matrices and attention maps, which work as learned event transition matrices, indicate event branches, e.g., inferring isolated events and those key events triggering many subsequent events. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show that plugging our BADMM module into existing TPP models and learning paradigms can improve model performance and provide us with interpretable structured event branches. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/qingmeiwangdaily/BADMM_TPP}.