Decameter-sized Earth impactors -- I: Orbital properties

TL;DR

This study analyzes the orbital properties of decameter-sized Earth impactors using USG satellite data to understand their origins and assess the role of tidal disruption in their population, finding limited evidence for recent disruption.

Contribution

First population-level analysis of decameter impactors' orbits using USG data, exploring their origins and the potential impact of tidal disruption.

Findings

No evidence for recent tidal disruption in impactors.

Impactors mainly originate from the ν6 secular resonance.

Impactors and NEA populations share similar source regions.

Abstract

Numerous decameter-sized asteroids have been observed impacting Earth as fireballs. These objects can have impact energies equivalent to hundreds of kilotons of TNT, posing a hazard if they impact populated areas. Previous estimates of meteoroid flux using fireball observations have shown an Earth impact rate for decameter-size objects of about once every $2$-$3$ years. In contrast, telescopic estimates of the near-Earth asteroid population predict the impact rate of such objects to be of order $20$-$40$ years, an order-of-magnitude difference. While the cause of this discrepancy remains unclear, tidal disruption of a larger near-Earth body has been proposed as an explanation for these excess decameter-sized impactors. The release in 2022 of previously classified United States Government (USG) satellite sensor data for fireball events has provided a wealth of new information on many of these impacts. Using this newly available USG sensor data, we present the first population-level study characterizing the orbital and dynamical properties of 14 decameter-sized Earth impactors detected by USG sensors since 1994, with a particular focus on searching for evidence of tidal disruption as the cause of the impact rate discrepancy. We find there is no evidence for recent ($\lesssim 10^4$ years) tidal disruption and weak evidence for longer-term tidal disruption in the decameter impactor population, but that the latter conclusion is limited by small number statistics. We also investigate the origins of both the impactor and near-Earth asteroid populations of decameter-sized objects from the main asteroid belt. We find that both populations generally originate from the same source regions: primarily from the $\nu_6$ secular resonance ($\sim70$%) with small contributions from the Hungaria group ($\sim20$%) and the 3:1 Jupiter mean-motion resonance ($\sim10$%).