Identifying the Hidden Nexus between Benford Law Establishment in Stock Market and Market Efficiency: An Empirical Investigation

TL;DR

This study empirically investigates the Warsaw Stock Exchange to understand why stock prices do not follow Benford's law, linking the non-compliance to market inefficiency and non-randomness.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence connecting market inefficiency with the failure of Benford's law to hold in stock prices, emphasizing the role of data randomness.

Findings

Stock prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange do not follow Benford's law.

Non-randomness in stock prices is linked to market inefficiency.

Chi-square test confirms the non-compliance with Benford's law.

Abstract

Benford's law, or the law of the first significant digit, has been subjected to numerous studies due to its unique applications in financial fields, especially accounting and auditing. However, studies that addressed the law's establishment in the stock markets generally concluded that stock prices do not comply with the underlying distribution. The present research, emphasizing data randomness as the underlying assumption of Benford's law, has conducted an empirical investigation of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The outcomes demonstrated that since stock prices are not distributed randomly, the law cannot be held in the stock market. Besides, the Chi-square goodness-of-fit test also supported the obtained results. Moreover, it is discussed that the lack of randomness originated from market inefficiency. In other words, violating the efficient market hypothesis has caused the time series non-randomness and the failure to establish Benford's law.