The Learning Crisis: Three Years After COVID-19

TL;DR

This study analyzes the global impact of COVID-19 related school closures on student achievement using TIMSS 2023 data, revealing significant learning losses especially in mathematics and science, with longer closures causing more damage.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive quantitative assessment of COVID-19 school closures' effects on learning outcomes across multiple education systems using recent international assessment data.

Findings

Global achievement decline of 0.11 SD due to closures

Longer closures correlate with greater learning losses

Greater impact observed among low performers, girls, and minorities

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread disruptions to education, with school closures affecting over one billion children. These closures, aimed at reducing virus transmission, resulted in significant learning losses, particularly in mathematics and science. Using data from TIMSS 2023, which assesses fourth and eighth-grade achievements across 71 education systems, this study analyzes the impact of school closure duration on learning outcomes. Mixed-effect models estimate deviations from pre-pandemic trends, adjusting for demographic factors. Results show a global average decline of 0.11 standard deviations (SD) in student achievement, with longer closures linked to more severe losses. The effects on low performers, girls, and linguistic minorities show effect sizes up to 0.22 SD. These findings highlight the lasting impact of school closures and emphasize the need for targeted recovery strategies and international cooperation to promote equitable educational outcomes post-pandemic.