How Well Did U.S. Rail and Intermodal Freight Respond to the COVID-19 Pandemic vs. the Great Recession?

TL;DR

This study compares U.S. rail freight responses to COVID-19 and the Great Recession, highlighting rapid recovery during the pandemic and slower changes during the recession, emphasizing the industry’s resilience.

Contribution

It provides a comparative analysis of freight volume patterns during two major economic disruptions, revealing differences in response times and commodity-specific impacts.

Findings

Rapid rebound of rail freight after COVID-19 onset

Commodity-specific variations in freight volume changes

Slower, prolonged adjustments during the Great Recession

Abstract

This paper analyzes and compares patterns of U.S. domestic rail freight volumes during, and after the disruptions caused by the 2007-2009 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Trends in rail and intermodal shipment data are examined in conjunction with economic indicators, focusing on the extent of drop and recovery of freight volumes of various commodities and intermodal shipments, and the lead/lag time with respect to economic drivers. While impacts from and the rebound from the Great Recessions were slow to develop, COVID-19 produced both profound disruptions in the freight market and rapid rebound, with important variations across commodity types. Energy-related commodities (i.e., coal, petroleum, and fracking sand), dropped during the pandemic while demand for other commodities (i.e., grain products and lumber, and intermodal freight). rebounded rapidly and in some cases grew. Overall rail freight experienced a rapid rebound following the precipitous drop in traffic in March and April 2020, achieving a near-full recovery in five months. As the recovery proceeded through 2020, intermodal flow, containers moving by rail for their longest overland trips, rebounded strongly, some exceeding 2019 levels. In contrast, rail flows during the Great Recession changed slowly with the onset and recovery, extending over multiple years. Pandemic response reflected the impacts of quick shutdowns and a rapid shift in consumer purchasing patterns. Results for the pandemic illustrate the resilience of U.S. rail freight industry and the multifaceted role it plays in the overall logistics system. Amid a challenging logistical environment, freight rail kept goods moving when other methods of transport were constrained.