Balancing Act: The Cost of Wind Restrictions in Norway's Electricity Transition

TL;DR

This paper analyzes how restrictions on onshore wind in Norway impact the costs and feasibility of achieving net-zero emissions by 2030, highlighting trade-offs between wind deployment, transmission, and demand management.

Contribution

It provides a case study using an electricity system model to quantify the effects of social and environmental restrictions on renewable deployment and system costs in Norway.

Findings

Restrictions on onshore wind increase system costs significantly.

Feasible system designs require compromises on wind deployment or transmission.

Demand reduction or non-electrification can mitigate some constraints.

Abstract

To meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement and reduce its dependency on energy imports, the pace, and scale of renewable energy deployment across Europe must increase dramatically over the next decade. Such a steep change in the net-zero transition will inevitably necessitate trade-offs with other societal priorities. Here we investigate a case study focused on the opposition towards onshore wind and the compromises that may need to be made to deliver its plans for deep electrification. Using an electricity system model, we explore the implications of key social and environmental dimensions shaping the future deployment of onshore wind on the costs and design of electricity systems for Norway in 2030. We find that under restrictions that allow for almost no additional onshore wind, demand can not be met and load has to be shed. Yet, when reducing the restrictions on onshore wind or allowing for in-country transmission expansion, feasible system designs at a small fraction of that cost can be found. To meet the net-zero targets, compromises will need to be made on either wind power deployment, transmission expansion, non-electrification of industry or demand reduction.