The Preponderance of Electric Vehicles and the Availability of Green Electricity

TL;DR

This paper discusses the challenges of maintaining environmentally friendly electric vehicles due to the mismatch between their rapid adoption and the slower growth of green electricity, highlighting future sustainability concerns.

Contribution

It analyzes the projected growth of electric vehicles versus green electricity production, emphasizing future limitations on sustainable electric vehicle operation.

Findings

Electric vehicle numbers will surpass green electricity capacity by 2037.

Green operation of electric vehicles will become impossible after 2037.

Hydrogen vehicles may overtake electric vehicles in sales by 2041, but sustainability remains uncertain.

Abstract

The main advantage of electric vehicles, namely, their non-polluting operation, is compromised when the electricity they use comes from burning fossil fuels. The number of electric vehicles on the road is growing much faster than the amount of green electricity produced. It is forecasted that in 2037 the number of electric vehicles on the road will need an amount of electricity equal to the entire green electricity produced at that time. Therefore, green operation of electric vehicles entering the market after 2037 will be impossible. The sales of hydrogen-burning vehicles are poised to overtake the sales of electric vehicles in 2041, but a non-polluting overall operation for them is not guaranteed either at this time.