Sanctions and Venezuelan Migration

TL;DR

This paper analyzes how US economic sanctions on Venezuela influence migration flows, showing that stricter sanctions increase emigration, while lifting sanctions could stabilize migration patterns.

Contribution

It provides an empirical assessment of how different US sanctions policies impact Venezuelan migration, highlighting the potential effects of policy changes on migration flows.

Findings

Maximum pressure sanctions could lead to one million additional emigrants in five years.

Lifting sanctions may stabilize migration flows and reduce emigration.

Sanctions disrupt oil revenues, affecting imports and productivity.

Abstract

This paper examines the potential impact of different US economic sanctions policies on Venezuelan migration flows. I consider three possible departures from the current status quo in which selected oil companies are permitted to conduct transactions with Venezuela's state-owned oil sector: a return to maximum pressure, characterized by intensive use of secondary sanctions, a more limited tightening that would revoke only the current Chevron license, and a complete lifting of economic sanctions. I find that sanctions significantly influence migration patterns by disrupting oil revenues, which fund imports critical to productivity in the non-oil sector. Reimposing maximum pressure sanctions would lead to an estimated one million additional Venezuelans emigrating over the next five years compared to a baseline scenario of no economic sanctions. If the US aims to address the Venezuelan migrant crisis effectively, a policy of engagement and lifting economic sanctions appears more likely to stabilize migration flows than a return to maximum pressure strategies.