ORAN Drives Higher Returns on Investments in Urban and Suburban Regions

TL;DR

This study uses game theory and machine learning to analyze how open radio access networks (ORAN) impact investment returns, showing higher profits in urban and suburban regions compared to traditional methods.

Contribution

It provides the first incentive analysis of ORAN using game theory and evaluates economic outcomes across different regions with advanced predictive models.

Findings

ORAN yields 11% to 31% higher NPV in urban/suburban areas.

Rural regions show lower and more variable NPVs.

Strategic interactions influence telecom investment profitability.

Abstract

This paper provides the first incentive analysis of open radio access networks (ORAN) using game theory. We assess strategic interactions between telecom supply chain stakeholders: mobile network operators (MNOs), network infrastructure suppliers (NIS), and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) across three procurement scenarios: (i) Traditional, (ii) Predatory as monolithic radio access networks (MRAN), and (iii) DirectOEM as ORAN. We use random forest and gradient boosting models to evaluate the optimal margins across urban, suburban, and rural U.S. regions. Results suggest that ORAN deployment consistently demonstrates higher net present value (NPV) of profits in urban and suburban regions, outperforming the traditional procurement strategy by 11% to 31%. However, rural areas present lower NPVs across all scenarios, with significant variability at the county level. This analysis offers actionable insights for telecom investment strategies, bridging technical innovation with economic outcomes and addressing strategic supply chain dynamics through a game-theoretic lens.