The impact of Egypt's accession to the BRICS group on the foreign exchange crisis in Egypt

TL;DR

This study analyzes how Egypt's accession to BRICS influences its foreign exchange crisis by examining investment, trade, and asset ratios from 2000 to 2024, and predicts future impacts using ARDL and ARIMA models.

Contribution

It provides the first comprehensive analysis of Egypt's potential economic effects of joining BRICS, combining empirical data analysis and future forecasting.

Findings

BRICS countries' participation correlates with changes in Egypt's foreign assets.

Foreign investment ratios and export opportunities are significantly impacted.

Forecasts suggest notable shifts in Egypt's foreign assets from 2024 to 2030.

Abstract

This paper investigated the impact of Egypt's accession to the BRICS bloc by studying the participation rate of BRICS countries in Egypt, as well as the exposure rate and the ratio of foreign investment of BRICS countries in Egypt to the total foreign investment in Egypt, as well as Egypt's export opportunities in the BRICS markets and the impact of these variables on the ratio of foreign assets in Egypt during the period from 2000 to 2024, In order to predict the impact of Egypt's accession to the BRICS bloc in the coming years as well. The study used the ARDL model to determine the impact of the four independent variables on the dependent variable (foreign assets), which is the ratio of foreign assets. It also used automatic ARIMA model to predict the values of the study variables during the period from 2024 to 2030.