Elo Ratings in the Presence of Intransitivity
Adam H. Hamilton, Matthew Roughan, Anna Kalenkova
TL;DR
This paper investigates the behavior of the Elo rating system when its fundamental assumptions are violated, highlighting potential issues and implications for its use in intransitive contexts.
Contribution
It provides an analysis of Elo ratings under intransitive conditions, revealing limitations and proposing considerations for accurate application.
Findings
Elo ratings can be inconsistent with intransitive data
Intransitivity affects the stability of Elo scores
Recommendations for interpreting Elo ratings in complex scenarios
Abstract
This paper studies how the Elo rating system behaves when the underlying modelling assumptions are not met.
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Taxonomy
TopicsSports Analytics and Performance