Short-Term Evolution and Risks of Debris Cloud Stemming from Collisions in Geostationary Orbit

TL;DR

This study models the short-term evolution of debris clouds from collisions in geostationary orbit, assessing collision risks and highlighting the region's vulnerability to space debris hazards.

Contribution

It introduces a method to model debris cloud evolution using probability density functions and evaluates collision risks within 36 hours after collisions.

Findings

Collision probability with millimeter debris can reach 1% in 36 hours.

Collision probability with larger fragments (~5 cm) is about 10^-5.

Debris clouds pose significant risks to geostationary satellites.

Abstract

The increasing population of objects in geostationary orbit has raised concerns about the potential risks posed by debris clouds resulting from fragmentation. The short-term evolution and associated hazards of debris generated by collisions in the geostationary region is investigated in this study. The initial distribution of two debris clouds is modeled using a single probability density function. The combined distribution of the evolved clouds is determined by solving boundary value problems. The risks associated with these debris clouds are evaluated by calculating the instantaneous impact rate and cumulative collision probability. The probability of collisions with millimeter-sized fragments may increase to 1% within 36 hours, while the probability of collisions with fragments 5 cm or larger is approximately $10^{-5}$. These findings underscore the vulnerability of the geostationary region to space traffic accidents.