Predicting the role of inequalities on human mobility patterns

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new human mobility model that accounts for inequalities in living conditions and job opportunities, improving predictions of migration and commuting patterns in diverse regions.

Contribution

The paper presents a novel mobility model incorporating inequalities, outperforming existing models in predicting migration and commuting patterns.

Findings

Model outperforms state-of-the-art in South Sudan migration prediction.

Model better predicts US commuting fluxes.

Highlights importance of inequalities in urban mobility modeling.

Abstract

Whether in search of better trade opportunities or escaping wars, humans have always been on the move. For almost a century, mathematical models of human mobility have been instrumental in the quantification of commuting patterns and migratory fluxes. Equity is a common premise of most of these mathematical models, such that living conditions and job opportunities are assumed to be equivalent across cities. Growing inequalities in modern urban economy and pressing effects of climate change significantly strain this premise. Here, we propose a mobility model that is aware of inequalities across cities in terms of living conditions and job opportunities. Comparing results with real datasets, we show that the proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art in predicting migration patterns in South Sudan and commuting fluxes in the United States. This model paves the way to critical research on resilience and sustainability of urban systems.