How much earlier would LSST have discovered currently known long-period comets?

TL;DR

This study estimates that LSST could have discovered about 40% of known long-period comets at least 5 years earlier and at twice the distance, potentially doubling the current discovery rate.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach by retrospectively analyzing how LSST would have impacted the discovery timeline of known comets, independent of flux predictions.

Findings

LSST could have discovered 40% of comets 5 years before perihelion.

LSST would have detected comets at twice the actual discovery distance.

Potential to double the current long-period comet discovery rate.

Abstract

Among solar system objects, comets coming from the Oort Cloud are an elusive population, intrinsically rare and difficult to detect. Nonetheless, as the more pristine objects we can observe, they encapsulate critical cues on the formation of planetary systems and are the focus of many scientific investigations and science missions. The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), which will start to operate from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in 2025, is expected to dramatically improve our detection ability of these comets by performing regular monitoring of the Southern sky deep down to magnitude 24.5 with excellent astrometry. However, making straightforward predictions on future LSST detection rates is challenging due to our biased knowledge of the underlying population. This is because identifications to date have been conducted by various surveys or individual observers, often without detailed information on their respective selection functions. Recent efforts to predict incoming flux of Long Period Comets still suffer of the lack of systematic, well-characterized, homogeneous cometary surveys. Here, we adopt a different point of view by asking how much earlier~on known comets on long-period or hyperbolic orbits would have been discovered by a LSST-like survey if it was already in place 10 years prior to their perihelion epoch. In this case, we are not simulating a real flux of incoming comet, as all comets in our sample reach the perihelion simultaneously, but we can analyze the impact of a LSST-like survey on individual objects. We find that LSST would have found about 40% of comets in our sample at least 5 years prior to their perihelion epoch, and at double (at least) the distance at which they were actually discovered. Based on this approach, we find that LSST has the potentiality to at least twofold the current discovery rate of long-period and hyperbolic comets.