A prediction for 25th solar cycle using visibility graph and Hathaway function

TL;DR

This paper uses complex network analysis of solar parameter time series via visibility graphs to predict the amplitude and timing of solar cycle 25's maximum sunspots, estimating 179 sunspots around December 2024 to January 2025.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach combining visibility graph metrics with the Hathaway function for solar cycle prediction, providing a new method for forecasting solar activity.

Findings

Predicted 179 sunspots for cycle 25.

Maximum solar activity expected in December 2024/January 2025.

Visibility graph metrics correlate with sunspot numbers, serving as precursors.

Abstract

We apply a complex network approach to analyse the time series of five solar parameters, and propose an strategy to predict the number of sunspots for the next solar maximum, and when will this maximum will occur. The approach is based on the Visibility Graph (VG) algorithm, and a slightly modified version of it, the Horizontal Visibility Graph (HVG), which map a time series into a complex network. Various network metrics exhibit either an exponential or a scale-free behavior, and we find that the evolution of the characteristic decay exponents is consistent with variations of the sunspots number along solar cycles. During solar minimum, the sunspots number and the solar index time series have characteristic decay exponents that correlate well with the next maximum sunspots number, suggesting that they may be good precursors of the intensity of the next solar maximum. Based on this observation, we find that, based on current data, the algorithm predicts a number of 179 sunspots for cycle 25. Combining this with the Hathaway function, adjusted to yield such maximum sunspots number, we find that the maximum for solar cycle 25 will occur in December 2024/January 2025.