Estimating Potential Tritium and Plutonium Production in North Korea's Experimental Light Water Reactor

TL;DR

This study assesses North Korea's 100 MW ELWR's potential to produce tritium and plutonium, highlighting its implications for nuclear weapons development and dual-use capabilities.

Contribution

It provides the first detailed analysis of the ELWR's potential for tritium and plutonium production, emphasizing its role in North Korea's nuclear arsenal expansion.

Findings

ELWR can produce 48-82 grams of tritium annually

Potential to supply 2-4 boosted warheads per year

Concurrent production of tritium and plutonium is feasible

Abstract

Our work explores North Korea's 100 MW-th Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) and its potential contributions to the country's nuclear weapons program. Built at the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center, the ELWR began operations in October 2023 and represents North Korea's first attempts at a light-water reactor using domestically-enriched, ceramic fuel. Our study examines possible configurations for energy, tritium, and tritium-plutonium co-production. Assuming a single-batch core, the ELWR can be used to annually produce 48-82 grams of tritium, which can supply 2-4 new boosted warheads each year, up to a maximum arsenal of 88-150 warheads total. Concurrent production of tritium and weapon-grade plutonium is also possible but requires reprocessing of spent ceramic fuel. These findings underscore how North Korea's nuclear capabilities may be advanced through the ELWR's dual-use potential.