Prescribing Decision Conservativeness in Two-Stage Power Markets: A Distributionally Robust End-to-End Approach

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel end-to-end framework that jointly calibrates wind power forecasts and decision conservativeness in two-stage power markets, improving operational cost efficiency and reliability.

Contribution

It proposes a cost-oriented calibration method that optimizes forecast parameters and decision conservativeness simultaneously using a convex reformulation and gradient descent.

Findings

Enhanced cost efficiency in power system operations

Effective calibration of forecast models and decision conservativeness

Demonstrated improvements on IEEE 5-bus system

Abstract

This paper presents an end-to-end framework for calibrating wind power forecast models to minimize operational costs in two-stage power markets, where the first stage involves a distributionally robust optimal power flow (DR-OPF) model. Unlike traditional methods that adjust forecast parameters and uncertainty quantification (UQ) separately, this framework jointly optimizes both the forecast model parameters and the decision conservativeness, which determines the size of the ambiguity set in the DR-OPF model. The framework aligns UQ with actual uncertainty realizations by directly optimizing downstream operational costs, a process referred to as cost-oriented calibration. The calibration is achieved using a gradient descent approach. To enable efficient differentiation, the DR-OPF problem is reformulated into a convex form, and the Envelope Theorem is leveraged to simplify gradient derivation in the two-stage setting. Additionally, the framework supports distributed implementation, enhancing data privacy and reducing computational overhead. By proactively calibrating forecast parameters and prescribing optimal decision conservativeness, the framework significantly enhances cost efficiency and reliability in power system operations. Numerical experiments on an IEEE 5-bus system demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.