An assessment of Alberta's strategy for controlling mountain pine beetle outbreaks
Evan C. Johnson, Mark A. Lewis

TL;DR
This study evaluates Alberta's mountain pine beetle control strategy using statistical models and long-term data, showing moderate efforts combined with cold winters effectively end outbreaks and are cost-efficient.
Contribution
It introduces a modeling framework that quantifies control effectiveness and environmental factors, supporting a 'wait it out' management approach with economic analysis.
Findings
Control reduced tree mortality by 79%
Cold winters synergize with control to end outbreaks
Cost of removing one infested tree prevents multiple deaths
Abstract
The Canadian province of Alberta spent over 500 million dollars on controlling mountain pine beetle populations, but did it work? Using a statistical modeling framework coupled with long-term field data, we examined how direct control measures, severe winters, and host-tree depletion shaped the trajectory of Alberta's mountain pine beetle outbreak between 2009 and 2020. Simulations suggest that control efforts reduced total tree mortality by 79% (95% predictive interval: 58--89%) and prevented 1.8 (0.91--4.1) trees per hectare from being killed from 2010--2020. Although cold winters had little effect on overall damage, they acted synergistically with control to end the outbreak, causing population collapse circa 2020. This synergy supports a "wait it out" strategy of mountain pine beetle management, where moderate control effort is applied until an extreme weather event delivers the…
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Taxonomy
TopicsForest Insect Ecology and Management · Plant Pathogens and Fungal Diseases · Yeasts and Rust Fungi Studies
