Explainable machine learning for neoplasms diagnosis via electrocardiograms: an externally validated study

TL;DR

This study develops and validates an explainable machine learning model using ECG data for non-invasive neoplasm diagnosis, demonstrating high accuracy and identifying key ECG features linked to neoplastic presence.

Contribution

It introduces a robust, interpretable diagnostic pipeline combining tree-based models and Shapley values, validated across diverse cohorts for early cancer detection.

Findings

High diagnostic accuracy in internal and external validation

Identification of significant ECG features, including novel predictors

Cost-effective and scalable approach suitable for resource-limited settings

Abstract

Background: Neoplasms are a major cause of mortality globally, where early diagnosis is essential for improving outcomes. Current diagnostic methods are often invasive, expensive, and inaccessible in resource-limited settings. This study explores the potential of electrocardiogram (ECG) data, a widely available and non-invasive tool for diagnosing neoplasms through cardiovascular changes linked to neoplastic presence. Methods: A diagnostic pipeline combining tree-based machine learning models with Shapley value analysis for explainability was developed. The model was trained and internally validated on a large dataset and externally validated on an independent cohort to ensure robustness and generalizability. Key ECG features contributing to predictions were identified and analyzed. Results: The model achieved high diagnostic accuracy in both internal testing and external validation cohorts. Shapley value analysis highlighted significant ECG features, including novel predictors. The approach is cost-effective, scalable, and suitable for resource-limited settings, offering insights into cardiovascular changes associated with neoplasms and their therapies. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the feasibility of using ECG signals and machine learning for non-invasive neoplasm diagnosis. By providing interpretable insights into cardio-neoplasm interactions, this method addresses gaps in diagnostics and supports integration into broader diagnostic and therapeutic frameworks.