A new oscillatory regime in two-strain epidemic models with partial cross-immunity

TL;DR

This paper uncovers a new oscillatory regime in two-strain epidemic models with partial cross-immunity, showing that sustained oscillations can occur under broader conditions than previously thought, even with weak cross-immunity and asymmetry.

Contribution

It reveals a novel oscillatory regime in two-strain epidemic models, challenging previous assumptions about the conditions needed for oscillations.

Findings

Oscillations occur even with weak cross-immunity.

Steady state of coexistence becomes unstable along specific parameter curves.

Numerical simulations confirm the existence of an unexpected oscillatory region.

Abstract

Infectious diseases often involve multiple strains that interact through the immune response generated after an infection. This study investigates the conditions under which a two-strain epidemic model with partial cross-immunity can lead to self-sustained oscillations, and reveals a new oscillatory regime in these models. Contrary to previous findings, which suggested that strong cross-immunity and significant asymmetry between strains are necessary for oscillations, our results demonstrate that sustained oscillations can occur even with weak cross-immunity and weak asymmetry. Using asymptotic methods, we provide a detailed mathematical analysis showing that the steady state of coexistence becomes unstable along specific curves in the parameter space, leading to oscillatory solutions for any value of the basic reproduction number greater than one. Numerical simulations support our theoretical findings, highlighting an unexpected oscillatory region in the parameter domain. These results challenge the current understanding of oscillatory dynamics in multi-strain epidemiological models, point to an oversight in previous studies, and suggest broader conditions under which such dynamics can arise.