Little to lose: the case for a robust European green hydrogen strategy

TL;DR

This paper argues that Europe should set a 2040 green hydrogen target of around 25 Mt, which is cost-effective and enhances climate strategy robustness amid high uncertainty.

Contribution

It demonstrates that a 25 Mt target by 2040 is nearly cost-optimal across various scenarios using novel analysis methods.

Findings

A 25 Mt target is within 10% of cost-optimal in most scenarios.

Setting concrete targets reduces investment uncertainty.

Green hydrogen targets decrease reliance on CCS and imports.

Abstract

The EU targets 10 Mt of green hydrogen production by 2030, but has not committed to targets for 2040. Green hydrogen competes with carbon capture and storage, biomass and imports in reaching emissions reductions; earlier studies have demonstrated the great uncertainty in future cost-optimal development of green hydrogen. In spite of this, we show that Europe risks little by setting green hydrogen production targets at around 25 Mt by 2040. Employing an extensive scenario analysis combined with novel near-optimal techniques, we find that this target results in systems that are within 10% of cost-optimal in most considered scenarios. Setting concrete targets is important in order to resolve significant uncertainty which hampers investments. Targeting green hydrogen reduces the dependence on carbon capture and storage and green fuel imports, making for a more robust European climate strategy.