Quantifying the Dynamics of Innovation Abandonment Across Scientific, Technological, Commercial, and Pharmacological Domains

TL;DR

This paper investigates how innovations are abandoned across various domains, revealing a common pattern of preferential abandonment that influences network stability and provides an analytical framework for understanding these dynamics.

Contribution

It uncovers a universal pattern of preferential abandonment across domains and develops an analytical model to understand its effects on network robustness.

Findings

Abandonment probability increases with time and network neighbors.

Preferential abandonment causes structural collapse in networks.

Analytical framework predicts effects based on network topology.

Abstract

Despite the vast literature on the diffusion of innovations that impacts a broad range of disciplines, our understanding of the abandonment of innovations remains limited yet is essential for a deeper understanding of the innovation lifecycle. Here, we analyze four large-scale datasets that capture the temporal and structural patterns of innovation abandonment across scientific, technological, commercial, and pharmacological domains. The paper makes three primary contributions. First, across these diverse domains, we uncover one simple pattern of preferential abandonment, whereby the probability for individuals or organizations to abandon an innovation increases with time and correlates with the number of network neighbors who have abandoned the innovation. Second, we find that the presence of preferential abandonment fundamentally alters the way in which the underlying ecosystem breaks down, inducing a novel structural collapse in networked systems commonly perceived as robust against abandonments. Third, we derive an analytical framework to systematically understand the impact of preferential abandonment on network dynamics, pinpointing specific conditions where it may accelerate, decelerate, or have an identical effect compared to random abandonment, depending on the network topology. Together, these results deepen our quantitative understanding of the abandonment of innovation within networked social systems, with implications for the robustness and functioning of innovation communities. Overall, they demonstrate that the dynamics of innovation abandonment follow simple yet reproducible patterns, suggesting that the uncovered preferential abandonment may be a generic property of the innovation lifecycle.