High-Resolution Rooftop-PV Potential Assessment for a Resilient Energy System in Ukraine

TL;DR

This paper assesses Ukraine's rooftop photovoltaic potential using satellite data and simulations, revealing a capacity of 238.8 GW and 290 TWh/year, supporting energy resilience and climate objectives.

Contribution

It introduces a novel methodology combining open-source satellite data with high-resolution corrections to accurately estimate Ukraine's rooftop PV potential.

Findings

Ukraine has a rooftop PV capacity potential of 238.8 GW.

Estimated annual generation potential is 290 TWh.

Most potential is in major cities like Kyiv, Dnipro, and Donetsk.

Abstract

Rooftop photovoltaic (RTPV) systems are essential for building a decarbonized and, due to its decentralized structure, more resilient energy system, and are particularly important for Ukraine, where recent conflicts have damaged more than half of its electricity and heat supply capacity. Favorable solar irradiation conditions make Ukraine a strong candidate for large-scale PV deployment, but effective policy requires detailed data on spatial and temporal generation potential. This study fills the data gap by using open-source satellite building footprint data corrected with high-resolution data from eastern Germany. This approach allowed accurate estimates of rooftop area and PV capacity and generation across Ukraine, with simulations revealing a capacity potential of 238.8 GW and a generation potential of 290 TWh/a excluding north-facing. The majority of this potential is located in oblasts (provinces) across the country with large cities such as Donetsk, Dnipro or Kyiv and surroundings. These results, validated against previous studies and available as open data, confirm Ukraine's significant potential for RTPV, supporting both energy resilience and climate goals.