Mating versus alternative blood sources as determinants to mosquito abundance and population resilience

TL;DR

This paper develops a mathematical model of mosquito populations considering blood sources and mating, revealing bi-stability and thresholds that inform control strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a novel nonlinear ODE model incorporating mating and blood source preferences, highlighting their effects on mosquito population stability.

Findings

Mating induces bi-stability in mosquito populations.

Long-term outcomes depend on initial conditions.

The model identifies key developmental thresholds for control.

Abstract

A deterministic nonlinear ordinary differential equation model for mosquito dynamics in which the mosquitoes can quest for blood either within a human population or within non-human/vertebrate populations is derived and studied. The model captures both the mosquito's aquatic and terrestrial forms and includes a mechanism to investigate the impact of mating on mosquito dynamics. The model uses a restricted form of homogeneous mixing based on the idea that the mosquito has a blood-feeding habit by accounting for the mosquitoes' blood-feeding preferences as well as its gonotrophic cycle. This characterization allows us to compartmentalise the total mosquito population into distinct compartments according to the spatial location of the mosquito (breeding site, resting places and questing places) as well as blood-fed status. Issues of overcrowding and intraspecific competition both within the aquatic and the terrestrial stages of the mosquito's life forms are addressed and considered in the model. Results show that the inclusion of mating induces bi-stability; a phenomenon whereby locally stable trivial and non-trivial equilibria co-exist with an unstable non-zero equilibrium. The local nature of the stable equilibria is demonstrated by numerically showing that the long-term state of the system is sensitive to initial conditions. The bi-stability state is analogous to the phenomenon of the Allee effect that has been reported in population biology. The model's results, including the derivation of the threshold parameter of the system, are comprehensively tested via numerical simulations. The output of our model has direct application to mosquito control strategies, for it clearly shows key points in the mosquito's developmental pathway that can be targeted for control purposes.