Machine learning algorithms to predict the risk of rupture of intracranial aneurysms: a systematic review

TL;DR

This systematic review evaluates the performance of machine learning algorithms in predicting intracranial aneurysm rupture risk, highlighting their potential but also current limitations and the need for further validation before clinical use.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of recent machine learning studies on aneurysm rupture prediction, emphasizing the quality and bias issues affecting current evidence.

Findings

Machine learning models achieved 0.66-0.90 accuracy range.

Models showed mixed results compared to clinical standards.

Most studies had high or unclear bias risks.

Abstract

Purpose: Subarachnoid haemorrhage is a potentially fatal consequence of intracranial aneurysm rupture, however, it is difficult to predict if aneurysms will rupture. Prophylactic treatment of an intracranial aneurysm also involves risk, hence identifying rupture-prone aneurysms is of substantial clinical importance. This systematic review aims to evaluate the performance of machine learning algorithms for predicting intracranial aneurysm rupture risk. Methods: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of Science were searched until December 2023. Studies incorporating any machine learning algorithm to predict the risk of rupture of an intracranial aneurysm were included. Risk of bias was assessed using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). PROSPERO registration: CRD42023452509. Results: Out of 10,307 records screened, 20 studies met the eligibility criteria for this review incorporating a total of 20,286 aneurysm cases. The machine learning models gave a 0.66-0.90 range for performance accuracy. The models were compared to current clinical standards in six studies and gave mixed results. Most studies posed high or unclear risks of bias and concerns for applicability, limiting the inferences that can be drawn from them. There was insufficient homogenous data for a meta-analysis. Conclusions: Machine learning can be applied to predict the risk of rupture for intracranial aneurysms. However, the evidence does not comprehensively demonstrate superiority to existing practice, limiting its role as a clinical adjunct. Further prospective multicentre studies of recent machine learning tools are needed to prove clinical validation before they are implemented in the clinic.