Statistical and Mathematical Evidence of Rigged Parliamentary Elections in Georgia, 2024

TL;DR

This paper presents a computational analysis of Georgian 2024 parliamentary elections, providing statistical evidence suggesting significant vote manipulation, with estimated manipulated votes around 175,000, supporting claims of election rigging.

Contribution

It introduces a novel computational method to quantify election manipulation using official data, offering a rigorous mathematical basis for election falsification claims.

Findings

Estimated manipulated votes between 140,000 and 200,000.

Estimated manipulated votes between 90,000 and 245,000.

Most probable manipulated votes estimated at 175,000.

Abstract

The official data provided by "Central Election Commission" was analyzed, revealing irregularities that raised reasonable suspicion of election manipulation by the winning ``Georgian Dream Party." However, these suspicions alone were insufficient to provide concrete evidence. A computational approach was developed based on the official data to address this. Through this analysis, one method estimated the number of manipulated votes to range between 140,000 and 200,000, while another approach estimated a broader range of 90,000 to 245,000 votes. Notably, both methods identified the most probable number of manipulated votes as 175,000, providing a strong mathematical basis to substantiate the claim of election falsification.