Smoothing and spatial verification of global fields

TL;DR

This paper introduces two new efficient methods for applying smoothing-based verification metrics like FSS to global weather forecast fields, addressing computational challenges posed by spherical geometry and irregular grids.

Contribution

It presents novel global smoothing techniques that enable the use of spatial verification metrics on high-resolution global forecast data.

Findings

Methods are computationally feasible for global fields

Metrics can handle irregular grid geometries and missing data

Application to ECMWF precipitation forecasts demonstrates effectiveness

Abstract

Forecast verification plays a crucial role in the development cycle of operational numerical weather prediction models. At the same time, verification remains a challenge as the traditionally used non-spatial forecast quality metrics exhibit certain drawbacks, with new spatial metrics being developed to address these problems. Some of these new metrics are based on smoothing, with one example being the widely used Fraction Skill Score (FSS) and its many derivatives. However, while the FSS has been used by many researchers in limited area domains, there are no examples of it being used in a global domain yet. The issue is due to the increased computational complexity of smoothing in a global domain, with its inherent spherical geometry and non-equidistant and/or irregular grids. At the same time, there clearly exists a need for spatial metrics that could be used in the global domain as the operational global models continue to be developed and improved, along with the new machine-learning-based models. Here, we present two new methodologies for smoothing in a global domain that are potentially fast enough to make the smoothing of high-resolution global fields feasible. Both approaches also consider the variability of grid point area sizes and can handle missing data appropriately. This, in turn, makes the calculation of smoothing-based metrics, such as FSS and its derivatives, in a global domain possible, which we demonstrate by evaluating the performance of operational high-resolution global precipitation forecasts provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.