Maintaining reliability while navigating unprecedented uncertainty: a synthesis of and guide to advances in electric sector resource adequacy

TL;DR

This paper reviews recent advances in resource adequacy assessment for the electric grid, focusing on methods to handle deep uncertainty and resilience, providing a comprehensive guide for researchers and practitioners.

Contribution

It offers a synthesis of methodologies addressing deep uncertainty in resource adequacy and clarifies terminology, aiding adoption in power system planning.

Findings

Emerging methodologies for deep uncertainty are summarized.

A clear relationship between resource adequacy and resilience is established.

Guidelines for operationalizing resource adequacy under uncertainty are provided.

Abstract

The reliability of the electric grid has in recent years become a larger concern for regulators, planners, and consumers due to several high-impact outage events, as well as the potential for even more impactful events in the future. These concerns are largely the result of decades-old resource adequacy (RA) planning frameworks being insufficiently adapted to the current types of uncertainty faced by planners, including many sources of deep uncertainty for which probability distributions cannot be defensibly assigned. There are emerging methodologies for dealing with these new types of uncertainty in RA assessment and procurement frameworks, but their adoption has been hindered by the lack of consistent understanding of terminology related to RA and the related concept of resilience, as well as a lack of syntheses of such available methodologies. Here we provide an overview of RA and its relationship to resilience, a summary of available methods for dealing with emerging types of uncertainty faced by RA assessment, and an an overview of procurement methodologies for operationalizing RA in the context of these types of uncertainty. This paper provides a synthesis and guide for both researchers and practitioners seeking to navigate a new, much more uncertain era of power system planning.