The Rise and Fall of Ideas' Popularity

TL;DR

This paper presents a new dynamic model based on epidemiological principles to better understand the rapid rise and fall of ideas' popularity in society, capturing cyclical fluctuations more accurately.

Contribution

It introduces a feedback-modified SIRS model that dynamically adjusts recovery rates, reflecting the cyclical nature of idea popularity driven by social saturation and interest renewal.

Findings

Model captures rapid, recurrent shifts in idea popularity

Provides insights into social saturation effects

Applicable to marketing, technology, and political movements

Abstract

In the dynamic landscape of contemporary society, the popularity of ideas, opinions, and interests fluctuates rapidly. Traditional dynamical models in social sciences often fail to capture this inherent volatility, attributing changes to exogenous shocks rather than intrinsic features of the system. This paper introduces a novel, tractable model that simulates the natural rise and fall of ideas' popularity, offering a more accurate representation of real-world dynamics. Building upon the SIRS (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered, Susceptible) epidemiological model, we incorporate a feedback mechanism that allows the recovery rate to vary dynamically based on the current state of the system. This modification reflects the cyclical nature of idea adoption and abandonment, driven by social saturation and renewed interest. Our model successfully captures the rapid and recurrent shifts in popularity, providing valuable insights into the mechanisms behind these fluctuations. This approach offers a robust framework for studying the diffusion dynamics of popular ideas, with potential applications across various fields such as marketing, technology adoption, and political movements.